I've mostly been using Thunder God variation, I think this is the best nuetral variation. As not many people give me projectile problems I don't feel like displacer is that necessary.
I have yet to fully explore the trap version of raiden fully, but he's capable of setting up unblockable resets, via trap into hard knock down trap. Grab+Trap activation. The only punishment you get off successfully landing the grab when the trap activates right after you both fall down, but raiden can BF3, before the opponent hits the ground.
But i'm gonna mostly talk about thunder god raiden.
His 50/50 on first hit comes from the following 2 strings.
B3,3 (by itself is pretty safe, but to be able to combo off it with big damage you need to commit to meter burn DF2.)
and B2. (extremely unsafe on block)
Midscreen - No Meter
b2, run, b111+3 (24%)
b33, bf3 (16%)
Midscreen - 1 Bar
b2, Run, 21, EX df2, b111+3 (36%)
b33, EX df2, 213, Run, 11, bf3 (35%)
Corner - No Meter
b2, 34, 213, b111+3 (35%)
b33, Same as Midscreen
Corner - 1 Bar
b2, 34, 34, EX df2, b111+3 (43%)
b33, EX df2, 34, 213, b111+3 (43%)
I wouldn't suggest these until you force them to commit.
However in Thunder God Variation you get a new string which is B3,2 it hits low but raiden follows up with a charged lightning attack that's relatively safe on block, -7.
It also pushes them away if they blocked it so they can't follow up unless using long range normals.
You can connect this into a Bf3 corner carry. it's hit confirmable so you don't have to commit to Bf3, and waste meter like the B3,3 DF2 version.
In the CORNER the B3,2(hold), is easily hitconfirmable unlock its brother the B3,3 DF2.
On to other mix ups.
A good combo starter is 3,4 second hit is overhead.
to mix up, I sometimes just hit 3, which is 0 on block, if they are expecting the overhead right after, you can do a D4, which gives raiden +2 on block, and on hit +24.
On hit if you dash after it, you're close to nuetral by the time you finish the dash. If you hit D4 on block with +2. It pushes them back that some of your strings won't work But F2 will reach right after cuz he moves in.
F2, 2+4 is safe and pushes them far back enough when you hold it that they can't counter poke or counter string you. it's -12, but the distance it creates between you two makes it safe against most people.
F2, 4,4 is nuetral on block, and keeps them infront of you pretty close.
If you want to get greedy F2, 4 is only -2. If you use the threat of the 3rd 4. You should get a new free string if they are waiting on the last hit. by the time they realize you aren't finishing the string it's too late.
His 2,1,4 string hits low at the end, you can do 2,1 make them expect low then B2 for a combo.
F1, 4 hits low on the 2nd hit.
can mix them up with 3,4 (should be able to react to first hit though)
or F1 as a single hit, then B2.
Don't use the 2,1,3 launcher. that is -25 on block. The most unsafe string in the world.
the only way you can get this launcher to hit is to do 2,1, into another string enough times that they want to counter poke after 2,1. then you can finish with 3 to catch them off guard.
don't do 2,1 over and over again as a mix up. You have to do 2,1 into something else. it's too easy to counter poke 2,1 spam. 2 is duck-able that's why.
This is all I've found so far in the lab. Still working on more.